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Short-term prediction of SO_2 concentration in Macau with artificial neural networks

机译:人工神经网络对澳门地区SO_2浓度的短期预测

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The air quality of Macau is deteriorating in the recent years due to the rapid economic and population growth of itself and its surrounding areas. One of the main air pollutant which is of great concern to Macau, as well as to many urban cities in the world, is sulfur dioxide (SO_2). In view of the yearly averaged SO_2 concentration, it is found that Macau may be classified as an uncontaminated area. Nevertheless, the daily averaged SO_2 concentrations of the year 1995 show that 39% of the last 3-month values recorded at A. Preta exceeded the Chinese primary standard, and it is selected as the representing period for the investigation of SO_2 pollution in Macau. Using just the records of the past month, a three-layered feed-forward artificial neural networks is developed to predict the daily SO_2 concentration 5 days in advance. The results show that the accuracy of the ANN model is within 14.45% and 13.71% for two testing periods, respectively. The promising results indicate that the ANN could be used to develop efficient air-quality analysis and prediction models in the future.
机译:近年来,由于澳门及其周边地区的经济和人口迅速增长,澳门的空气质量正在恶化。二氧化硫(SO_2)是引起澳门以及世界上许多城市关注的主要空气污染物之一。根据SO_2的年平均浓度,发现澳门可能被归类为未污染区域。然而,1995年的每日平均SO_2浓度显示,A。Preta记录的最近3个月的值中有39%超过了中国的主要标准,因此被选为澳门SO_2污染调查的代表期。仅使用过去一个月的记录,就开发了一个三层前馈人工神经网络来提前5天预测每日的SO_2浓度。结果表明,在两个测试期间,ANN模型的准确性分别在14.45%和13.71%之内。有希望的结果表明,人工神经网络可以在将来用于开发有效的空气质量分析和预测模型。

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