When Tony Blair signed the European Union's constitutional treaty at a ceremony in Rome in October, his face bore the tight-lipped smile of a man signing his own political death warrant. Mr Blair has promised that Britain will hold a referendum on the constitution, probably early in 2006. This week the British cabinet agreed that the question should be a simple yes or no one. But the polls suggest that British voters will say no. If that happens, Mr Blair, who once promised to put his country "at the heart of Europe", might find that instead he became the prime minister who presided over a fatal rupture in Britain's relationship with the Eu-and he might well have to resign. Like many a condemned man, Mr Blair is hoping for a last-minute reprieve. If he cannot turn around British opinion, perhaps one of the other ten countries that have promised to hold a referendum might help by rejecting the constitution first? But such hopes have taken a knock now that the French Socialist Party has decided to campaign for a yes in France's referendum. This decision makes it far more likely that the French will vote in favour of the constitution when their referendum is held early next summer. Polls point to a strong French yes.
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