Insecurities

摘要

Many things in life are unexpected. The upward nudge that the Federal Reserve gave to American interest rates on November loth was not one of them. Further increases in rates look almost certain. Less predictable, however, is the speed with which they will come. How far and how fast the Fed tightens policy could have important implications for the boom (some say bubble) in American house prices that record low interest rates have fuelled over the past four years. It might also matter a great deal to America's banks, which have made plenty of money in recent years from the roaring mortgage market. "Never have rates been so low for so long as they have in this cycle," says Nancy Bush of NAB Research in New Jersey. "The concern is that the mortgage boom has really distorted expectations for the bank sector's growth." Banks, she points out, have profited in many ways from the boom-mortgage lending and refinancing, home-equity loans and gains on the sale of banks' mortgage portfolios-all of which are vulnerable to a housing-market slowdown.