In the 14 years since Japan's economy fell apart, every attempt to piece together a recovery has failed. There is growing optimism, however, that this time is different. Although plenty of gaps remain ― from the property market to corporate borrowing-each piece of good news adds to the image of a real rebound. However, one last gaping hole in an otherwise happy economic picture remains: Japan's cautious household sector, which has until recently showed few signs of spending more freely. So onlookers are understandably thrilled by the latest hints, however tentative, that this last, crucial piece may now be falling into place. Measures of Japanese consumer spending tend to be both unreliable and volatile, so it is best not to get carried away by a couple of good months. Because 2004 is a leap year, with five Sundays in February, early spending patterns are harder to gauge than usual. Nevertheless, there has been plenty of good news. Overall household spending was up by 5.2%, year-on-year, in February, and year-on-year retail sales rose by 0.9%. Retailers such as Aeon and Ito-Yokado are boasting bumper profits. As Japan's tourists prepare for the annual "golden week" holiday in early May, they seem far more eager to travel abroad than they did this time last year.
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