Visions of 2020

摘要

Every so often, a slogan rings out: Welome to the new Japan! It comes from any pundit or panjandrum wanting to claim that, in a country that to many seems so unchanging, some dramatic new trend can be seen. But it is usually misleading, or exaggerated, for Japan doesn't do drama (and that is not a comment on Kabuki and Noh), except when it feels under threat of invasion, as in the 1860s, or suffers a wartime defeat, as in 1945. The stock- and property-market crashes that began in 1990 were dramatic for those caught up in them, and certainly produced a sharp change in perceptions of Japan in the world as well as in Japan's perception of itself. But the social and political response was totally undramatic. The country muddled through, at first in denial but later with a host of incremental adjustments. Fifteen years on, the same party is in government with a big majority, society remains stable, and Toyota is the world's best car com- pany. Anyone know the Japanese for plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose? As this survey has argued, however, that too is misleading. Those incremental adjustments, in politics, corporate law, capital markets, financial regulation, labour law and practices, and much else besides, have altered the incentives guiding society, the economy and politics. In part, the effect has been to reduce the distortions, misallocation of capital and indiscipline that have for about two decades neutralised Japan's long-standing economic and social strengths: excellent education, co-operative relations inside companies and advanced technology. But also, over the longer term, such a gradual accumulation of many small reforms will lead the country in new directions, especially given the recent changes in East Asia and the world economy as a whole, and given its own changing demography. No one can really know where those directions might take Japan over, say, the next 15 years. But some guesses can be made.