2020 Visions: How Fast Growth Can Reduce Poverty and Increase Trade, 1995-2020.

摘要

This paper contrasts two scenarios of economic growth, poverty reduction, and trade growth over the 25 years, 1995-2020, for 12 countries. The 12 were chosen because they account for some 80% of all the people (outside of China) who live in 'extreme poverty', the people who survive on the local equivalent of less than one U.S. dollar a day. Eleven of these countries were among the 74 with closed economies, slow output growth, and poverty increases during the two decades, 1970-1989. The first scenario projects outcomes in 2020 if, after 1998, the 12 pursue 'closed' economic policies once typical of the 74, 1970-1989, and average a growth rate of only 0.7% per capita per year. The other scenario builds on the assumption that, with appropriate policies taking hold after 1998, all countries can achieve convergence by raising their per capita incomes toward those of the high-income countries. Here, we project 2020 outcomes assuming that each of the 12 nations adopts and maintains the openness of the 15 during 1970-1989 and does achieve, after 1998, the growth rates that, for the 15, averaged 4.5% per capita per year.