A lot of bad luck and a fair amount of bad management have combined to take the gloss off this year's onslaught on the Afghan drug trade, conducted at a cost of close to $1 billion. After earlier predictions of a drop in the opium harvest of up to 40%, recent weeks have seen ministers and American officials preparing the ground for much less impressive gains. Much of the blame this year falls on the fickle hand of nature, and rains not seen for a generation in Afghanistan. The result is an opium crop that has, according to UN officials, produced a vastly better yield per hectare than last year. President Hamid Karzai's hopes have been washed away in the subsequent deluge.
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