Leaf through the financial magazines at this time of year and they are full of predictions. The five stocks to own! The hottest mutual funds! Wall Street's finest are asked to spell out their forecasts in full. The venerable Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs asserts, with remarkable precision, that profits will grow by 5.6% and that the s&p 500 index will end the year, not at 1,670 or 1,680, but at 1,675. The one forecast Buttonwood can safely make for 2008 is that the consensus will prove to be wrong. Although many anticipated a fall in American house prices for 2007, for example, few expected the scale of the ramifications for financial markets, as a whole system of structured finance appeared to unravel and the banking system was plunged into crisis.
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机译：在每年的这个时候翻阅金融杂志，它们充满了预测。拥有五只股票！最热门的共同基金！要求华尔街最好的人详细说明他们的预测。高盛（Goldman Sachs）享有盛誉的艾比·约瑟夫·科恩（Abby Joseph Cohen）断言，利润将以5.6％的速度增长，而标准普尔500指数将在年底结束，而不是1,670或1,680，而是1,675。 Buttonwood可以安全地对2008年做出的预测是，共识将被证明是错误的。例如，尽管许多人预计美国房屋价格将下跌，但很少有人预计金融市场的分叉规模，因为整个结构性金融体系似乎正在瓦解，银行体系陷入了危机。
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