Is there a future?

摘要

In the early years of this decade, when banks did quaint things like making money, the mantra on Wall Street was: "Be more like Goldman Sachs". Bank bosses peered enviously at the profits and risk-taking prowess of the venerable investment bank. No longer. "Be less like Goldman Sachs" is the imperative today.rnOf the five independent investment banks open for business at the start of the year, only Goldman and Morgan Stanley remain. Doubts about the sustainability of the model are rife. In earnings conference calls on September 16th, the chief financial officers of both firms had to bat away analysts' questions about their ability to survive on their own. Spreads on their credit-default swaps, which protect against the risk of default, soared as investors digested the implications of Lehman Brothers' demise (see chart at the end of the article).rnUniversal banks, which marry investment banking and deposit-taking, are in the ascendant. Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch found shelter in the arms of two big universal banks, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America. Barclays, a British universal bank, is picking at the carrion of Lehman Brothers.