At the beginning of June Jean-Claude Trichet, the head of the European Central Bank, set out its latest forecasts. Though the worst of the downturn had probably passed, he said, the euro-area economy would be unlikely to grow until the middle of 2010. Just a few weeks later Mr Trichet looks too gloomy. Figures published on August 13th are likely to show that gdp shrank again in the second quarter, but that this will probably be the low point.rnMore timely indicators suggest the economy has started to grow again. Businessmen are cheerier. The gauge of German business sentiment published by Ifo, a research institute in Munich, rose in July to its highest level for seven months. Confidence in France increased for a fourth straight month, according to a survey by insee, the national statistics agency. The brighter mood reflects orders and sales. Euro-zone industrial output rose in May for the first time since September. A broader index, based on surveys of purchasing managers in manufacturing and services, was much stronger in July.
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