Bar-hopping visitors to Thailand are warned that minor brawls can turn deadly in the blink of an eye. The same applies to political violence. Over four days of mayhem, Thailand lurched from a mob invasion of a regional leaders' summit in Pattaya to a military crackdown on protesters in Bangkok and then, on April 14th, to a negotiated surrender to authorities. By restoring order, the reeling government, and the prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, won themselves a temporary breathing space.rnBut a ceasefire is not a peace deal. More ruptures seem certain as Thailand fumbles for a path out of perennial political conflict. Politicians talk of reform, but cannot agree on what to change. The army has closed ranks for now behind Mr Abhisit but its motivations are hard to fathom. Anger and frustration curdle in rival political camps, fed by a partisan press. Even the standard Thai solution of holding fresh elections is unlikely to work. Mr Abhisit's Democrat Party, which heads the ruling coalition, justifiably fears that, in a free and fair election, voters would, as on the past three occasions, elect a government loyal to Thaksin Shinawatra, a former prime minister. Such a government would, inevitably, face protests by the royalist People's Alliance for Democracy (pad), who wear yellow shirts and despise Mr Thaksin.
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