Free exchange | String-pushers

摘要

Incumbent politicians know that if the economy is doing well, they are much more likely to be re-elected. When wages are rising and jobs are plentiful, workers feel happy. Small wonder, then, that many governments attempt to manipulate the economy to boost their political fortunes. New research, though, shows that however hard politicians try, shaping the economy to suit their electoral needs is a tall order. In a paper published in 1975 William Nordhaus of Yale University posited the existence of a "political business cycle" (pbc). He suggested that in the run-up to an election, politicians go on a spending binge. They may increase the generosity of unemployment benefits, for instance, or cut taxes. This, they hope, will give the economy a short-term boost, maximising their chance of reelection. After the election, though, they often have to cut back to stop the economy overheating and debt piling up.