Much to report

摘要

"USMCA WILL boost economic growth and create jobs." This was the triumphant headline from the White House's media machine summarising an official assessment of the impact of America's new trade deal with Mexico and Canada. According to the United States International Trade Commission (USITC), an independent government agency, the deal will increase American gdp by 0.35% and employment by 0.12%. Since the North American Free Trade Agreement (nafta), which the usmca replaced, had already slashed most tariffs between the three countries, it would be unfair to expect the impact to be large. But two aspects of the analysis offer fairer grounds for scepticism. One concerns trade in cars; the other the way the assessment accounts for policy stability in the future.