Europe

摘要

1. Industrial production rose by 0.9% in August, which together with orders expanding at around 2% a month should deliver decent growth in output for Q3 as a whole. We then expect a renewed slowdown in growth as a consequence of the ending of several of car scrappage programmes and the waning impact of the stock cycle. This implies a rather slow and uncertain recovery until H2 2010. And we still forecast a contraction in industrial production of 13.8% this year.