Japan

摘要

1. Japan's economy went into freefall in 2008Q4, with industrial output collapsing by more than 10%. As a result, we forecast GDP in Q4 fell by some 3% - the biggest quarterly drop since 1974Q1. With the negative momentum set to be maintained through early 2009, we now forecast GDP will fall by 3% this year, the worst single year since 1945. Recovery in 2010 will be subdued, with growth of just 0.8%.rn2. The accelerating downturn has been led by the industrial sector. In November, industrial output dropped by more than 8% in the month, leaving output some 13% lower than a year ago, already matching the peak rate of decline seen in 2001.