Forecast Overview

摘要

The quarterly national accounts for Q2 contained substantial revisions to both the short‐ and long‐term historical data. Methodological improvements reduced the pace of growth before the global financial crisis but upgraded growth in the 2010–19 period, thus reducing the scale of the productivity puzzle a little. More recently, both Q1 and Q2 2021 saw better performances than previously thought, meaning that GDP was only 3.3% below its pre‐pandemic level in Q2, not 4.4%.