Forecast Overview

摘要

GDP fell by 19.8% q/q in Q2, leaving output nearly 22% lower than Q4 2019. This was a larger decline in output than any other major economy except Spain. However, different methodologies for measuring public sector output exaggerated the scale of the UK decline relative to most other countries. The ONS is one of the few statistical agencies to attempt to construct genuine volume measures of public sector output and government consumption. Real government consumption rose between Q4 2019 and Q2 2020 in Germany and Spain but fell by 18% in the UK.