How robots change the world

摘要

1. The global robotics revolution is rapidly accelerating, as fast-paced technological advances converge. This will transform robots' capabilities and their ability to replace human workers, including in services where robot use is also set to rise steeply. 2. The global stock of industrial robots multiplied three-fold over the past two decades, to 2.25 million. Trends suggest it will multiply even faster in the next 20 years, reaching as many as 20 million by 2030, with 14 million in China alone. 3. The rise of the robots will boost productivity and growth, and create new jobs, some in yet-to-exist industries. We estimate a 30% rise in robot installations by 2030 would create around $5 trillion in additional global GDP in today's prices. 4. But existing business models will be disrupted and jobs lost - we estimate up to 20 million manufacturing jobs by 2030. Each new industrial robot eliminates 1.6 manufacturing jobs on average and almost twice that in low-skilled regions. 5. Job losses will vary greatly across countries and regions, with the toll falling disproportionately on lower-skilled workers and on poorer local economies, aggravating social and economic stresses. The challenges for governments and policy-makers are daunting at a time of already growing political polarisation.