Japan

摘要

Growth continues to struggle against an uncertain external outlook and weak domestic demand. While GDP in most of 2019 was supported by a pick-up in consumption spending ahead of last October's consumption tax hike, weak October and November data highlighted the possibility of a larger than expected fall in growth in Q4 2019. We expect GDP growth to slow to 0.3% in 2020 (after an estimated 1.0% in 2019), held back by a higher consumption tax, weak wage growth, and sluggish trade. That said, the 2020 Tokyo Olympics should provide modest support to spending and tourism. In 2021, we expect GDP to grow 0.8%.