Japan

摘要

Growth continues to struggle against a background of weak exports and a deceleration in capex spending, given sluggish external demand and the ongoing slowdown in ICT. While GDP grew 0 6% q/q in Q1, we caution against seeing the strong print as cause for optimism, as falling imports were the key factor behind the unexpectedly robust outturn. With manufacturing still struggling and exports slowing further, we maintain our relatively cautious forecast of 0.5% GDP growth in 2019. In 2020, we now forecast GDP growth of just 0.2% due to the impact of the scheduled consumption tax hike in Q4.