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DOES CONSERVATISM MATTER? A TIME-SERIES APPROACH TO CENTRAL BANK BEHAVIOUR

机译:保守主义很重要吗?中央银行行为的时间序列方法

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Empirical studies crediting 'independent and conservative central banks' with lowering inflation and inflation volatility have been criticised for their focus on policy outcomes instead of policies, and for their unsystematic conflation of independence and conservatism. We present results from time-series models for the German Bundesbank that avoid these shortfalls. Conservatism matters in the following sense: (ⅰ) more conservative Bundesbank Councils tend to react stronger to changes in inflation and output, and (ⅱ) an increase in conservatism leads to a more activist stabilisation policy. This is in line with simple policy models incorporating economic persistence with implementation lags for monetary policy.
机译:由于降低了通货膨胀率和通货膨胀率而使“独立而保守的中央银行”获得信誉的实证研究受到批评,因为它们关注政策结果而不是政策,并且对独立性和保守主义进行了非系统的融合。我们提出了德国央行的时间序列模型的结果,这些结果可以避免这些不足。保守主义在以下意义上很重要:(ⅰ)保守程度更高的德国央行理事会倾向于对通货膨胀和产出的变化做出更强烈的反应;(ⅱ)保守主义的增加导致采取更加积极的稳定政策。这与简单的政策模型是一致的,该模型将经济持久性与货币政策的实施滞后结合在一起。

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