Natural Resources and Conflict in Africa: What Do the Data Show?

摘要

The empirical relationship between natural resources and conflict in Africa is not very well understood. Using a novel geocoded data set, we are able to construct a quasi-natural experiment to explore the causal effects of oil field and mineral discoveries on intrastate armed conflict in Africa at the grid cell level corresponding to a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° latitude and longitude. We find no evidence of resource discoveries triggering conflict after controlling for property rights institutions, past discoveries, grid cell and year fixed effects, grid cell–specific trends, and country-year fixed effects. Resource discoveries are associated with improved local living standards and increased political patronage, both of which reduce conflict. We observe little or no heterogeneity in the relationship across resource types, discovery size, distance to discovery and borders, and institutions. The relationship remains unchanged at a higher grid cell resolution and at the regional and national levels.