Has air pollution emission level in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region peaked? A panel data analysis

摘要

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region is one of the important economic centers of China, but it suffers from severe air pollution. Based on the panel pollution-related data of 2013-2017, this research adopted a Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) equation to fit the relationship between pollution emission level and its related socio-economic indicators. The pollution emission level of the BTH region was fitted and projected by using the entropy evaluation method to measure the emission levels, the partial least squares algorithm to estimate the STIRPAT equation parameters, and the hybrid trend extrapolation model to forecast the future development of the above socioeconomic indicators. Empirical analysis showed that the fitting curve to air pollution emission level reached the peak in 2015 and then decreased with a fluctuating and slow process. The air pollution emissions in 2025 will decrease to the level of 2007. With regard to the impacts on the change of the air emission pollution level, industrial waste gas emissions play a decisive role. The influence of soot (dust) emissions is considerably smaller but still larger than that of SO2 emissions. Besides, the slowing down of the economic development in the future will contribute to air quality improvement. However, the rapid growth of population in Hebei and Tianjin would hinder such improvement. Empirical analysis also implied that governments in this region should specially monitor the operation of building material industries to ensure the steady improvement of air quality.