Dry Bulk

摘要

Global trade has started to revive after the covid crisis, and we expect the trade to recover sharply in the remainder of 2021. Meanwhile, the dry bulk fleet will expand at a relatively slow pace, which means that the overcapacity will contract, resulting in high charter rates. China’s rising iron ore imports will continue to aid the global trade. Inventories at Chinese ports are still low, while manufacturing and construction activity has been expanding, which will increase imports. The country will source iron ore imports from Brazil, and it will strengthen the shipping demand. Furthermore, the EU’s mass vaccination drive and opening up of the economy will also drive the region’s industrial production. Consequently, the iron ore trade will be revived in the Atlantic. Amid the ongoing tight supply, the Indian government has not renewed its long-term agreement for iron ore supply to Japanese and South Korean steel mills. In 2020, India exported 2.4 million tonnes of iron ore to Japan and South Korea. In the absence of Indian iron ore, the latter will source the commodity from Australia or Brazil, in turn, boosting the demand for Capesize vessels.