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Risk Assessment of Urban Gas Pipeline Based on Different Unknown Measure Functions

机译:基于不同未知措施功能的城市天然气管道风险评估

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Several risk factors threaten the safety of urban gas pipeline. How to effectively identify various risk factors affecting urban gas pipeline and put forward scientific risk assessment method is the focus in the field of urban safety research. To explore the uncertain factors in the process of gas pipeline risk assessment, and propose a practical assessment method, a three-layer index system for the risk assessment of urban gas pipeline was established using unascertained measure theory, which included 5 first-class evaluation factors and 34 second-class evaluation indexes. Four unascertained measure models (linear, parabolic, exponential and sinusoidal) were constructed, and the unascertained measure values of each evaluation index under four unknown measure function models were calculated. The weight of evaluation factors was determined by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and the confidence criterion was used for discriminant evaluation. Results demonstrate that the risk assessment models constructed with different measurement functions can effectively reduce the uncertainty of urban gas pipeline risk assessment, but for the same object, the risk level of the linear measurement model in 4# pipeline is lower than other measurement functions, and the risk level of sinusoidal measurement model in 8# pipeline is higher than other measurement functions. Therefore, considering the evaluation results under different measure functions and focusing on monitoring objects with different results is necessary when using unascertained measure theory for risk assessment. The conclusions obtained from this study clarify the application conditions of unascertained measure theory in urban gas pipeline risk assessment, which helps to reduce the uncertainty in the assessment process and improve the accuracy of the assessment results.
机译:一些风险因素威胁到城市燃气管道的安全。如何有效地确定影响城市天然气管道的各种风险因素,提出科学风险评估方法是城市安全研究领域的重点。为了探讨燃气管道风险评估过程中的不确定因素,并提出了一种实用的评估方法,建立了一个三层指标系统,用于城市天然气管道风险评估的措施,包括5个一流的评估因素和34级评估指标。建造了四种不确定的测量模型(线性,抛物线,指数和正弦状),并计算了四个未知度量函数模型下每个评估指标的不肥化测量值。评估因子的重量由分析层次处理(AHP)确定,置信标准用于判别评估。结果表明,采用不同测量功能构建的风险评估模型可以有效地降低城市燃气管道风险评估的不确定性,但对于相同的对象,4#管道线性测量模型的风险水平低于其他测量功能,并且8#管道中正弦测量模型的风险等级高于其他测量功能。因此,考虑到不同措施函数下的评估结果,并且在利用未味道的衡量风险评估理论时,需要关注具有不同结果的对象。本研究获得的结论澄清了城市燃气管道风险评估中无恶化措施理论的应用条件,有助于减少评估过程中的不确定性,提高评估结果的准确性。

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