Mountaineers on Mount Everest: Effects of age, sex, experience, and crowding on rates of success and death

摘要

Mount Everest is an extreme environment for humans. Nevertheless, hundreds of mountaineers attempt to summit Everest each year. In a previous study we analyzed interview data for all climbers (2,211) making their first attempt on Everest during 1990–2005. Probabilities of summiting were similar for men and women, declined progressively for climbers about 40 and older, but were elevated for climbers with experience climbing in Nepal. Probabilities of dying were also similar for men and women, increased for climbers about 60 and older (especially for the few that had summited), and were independent of experience. Since 2005, many more climbers (3,620) have attempted Everest. Here our primary goal is to quantify recent patterns of success and death and to evaluate changes over time. Also, we investigate whether patterns relate to key socio-demographic covariates (age, sex, host country, prior experience). Recent climbers were more diverse both in gender (women = 14.6% vs. 9.1% for 1990–2005) and in age (climbers ≥ 40 = 54.1% vs. 38.7%). Strikingly, recent climbers of both sexes were almost twice as likely to summit–and slightly less likely to die–than were comparable climbers in the previous survey. Temporal shifts may reflect improved weather forecasting, installation of fixed ropes on much of the route, and accumulative logistic equipment and experience. We add two new analyses. The probability of dying from illness or non-traumas (e.g., high-altitude illness, hypothermia), relative to dying from falling or from ‘objective hazards’ (avalanche, rock or ice fall), increased marginally with age. Recent crowding during summit bids was four-fold greater than in the prior sample, but surprisingly crowding has no evident effect on success or death during summit bids. Our results inform prospective climbers as to their current odds of success and of death, as well as inform governments of Nepal and China of the safety consequences and economic impacts of periodically debated restrictions based on climber age and experience.