Risk identification and assessment with the fuzzy DEMATEL-ANP method in oil and gas projects under uncertainty

摘要

Oil and gas projects are integrated with a huge number of uncertainties due to their unique characteristics, complexities and uncertain environment. The aim of this study is to identify and evaluate the main risks of this type of projects based on the PMBOK guide under sanctions and uncertain conditions. The main risks were identified through document analysis which were finally reduced to 17 risks through expert judgments using fuzzy Delphi method. The experts included 15 people with more than ten years’ practical experience in the oil and gas projects. The results of confirmatory factor analysis confirmed all risks in terms of statistical population. Then, the interrelations between risks and their importance weights were determined by using hybrid fuzzy DEMATEL-ANP technique. The final results showed that political and economic sanctions have the highest weight, followed by the attraction of foreign investors and the lack of regional infrastructure.