Epidemiology of infectious diarrhoea and the relationship with etiological and meteorological factors in Jiangsu Province, China

摘要

We depicted the epidemiological characteristics of infectious diarrhoea in Jiangsu Province, China. Generalized additive models were employed to evaluate the age-specific effects of etiological and meteorological factors on prevalence. A long-term increasing prevalence with strong seasonality was observed. In those aged 0-5 years, disease risk increased rapidly with the positive rate of virus (rotavirus, norovirus, sapovirus, astrovirus) in the 20-50% range. In those aged??20 years, disease risk increased with the positive rate of adenovirus and bacteria (Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Salmonella, Escherichia coli, Campylobacter jejuni) until reaching 5%, and thereafter stayed stable. The mean temperature, relative humidity, temperature range, and rainfall were all related to two-month lag morbidity in the group aged 0-5 years. Disease risk increased with relative humidity between 67-78%. Synchronous climate affected the incidence in those aged 20 years. Mean temperature and rainfall showed U-shape associations with disease risk (with threshold 15?°C and 100?mm per month, respectively). Meanwhile, disease risk increased gradually with sunshine duration over 150?hours per month. However, no associations were found in the group aged 6-19 years. In brief, etiological and meteorological factors had age-specific effects on the prevalence of infectious diarrhoea in Jiangsu. Surveillance efforts are needed to prevent its spread.