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Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease and Its Relationship with Meteorological Factors in Jiangsu Province China

机译:江苏省手足口病的时空动态及其与气象因子的关系

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摘要

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is an important public health issue in mainland China, including Jiangsu Province. The main purpose of this study was to depict the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD and evaluate the effects of meteorological variables on its dynamics via spatiotemporal analytic methods, which is essential for formulating scientific and effective prevention and control strategies and measures. In total, 497,910 cases of HFMD occurred in the 2009-2013 period, with an average annual incidence of 126.3 per 100,000 in Jiangsu. Out of these, 87.7% were under 5 years old with a male-to-female incidence ratio of 1.4. The dominant pathogens of the laboratory-confirmed cases were EV71 and CoxA16, accounting for 44.8% and 30.6% of all cases, respectively. Two incidence peaks were observed in each year, the higher occurring between April and June, the lower between November and December. The incidence ranged between 16.8 and 233.5 per 100,000 at the county level. The incidence in the South of the province was generally higher than that in the northern regions. The most likely spatiotemporal cluster detected by space–time scan analysis occurred in May-June of 2012 in the southern region. Average temperature and rainfall were positively correlated with HFMD incidence, while the number of days with rainfall ≥ 0.1mm, low temperature, high temperature and hours of sunshine were negatively related. Particularly, relative humidity had no relationship. In conclusion, the prevalence of HFMD in Jiangsu Province has an obvious feature of seasonality. The etiological composition changed dynamically and might be a latent driving force for the temporal variation of the incidence of HFMD. A moderately warm environment promotes the transmission of the HFMD viruses, while particularly cold and hot climate conditions restrain their transmission.
机译:手足口病(HFMD)是中国大陆(包括江苏省)的重要公共卫生问题。这项研究的主要目的是描绘手足口病的流行病学特征,并通过时空分析方法评估气象变量对其动态的影响,这对于制定科学有效的预防和控制策略和措施至关重要。在2009年至2013年期间,江苏省共发生497,910例手足口病,平均每年每10万人中有126.3例手足口病。其中,87.7%的5岁以下人群的男女发病率为1.4。实验室确诊病例的主要病原体为EV71和CoxA16,分别占所有病例的44.8%和30.6%。每年观察到两个发病高峰,4月和6月之间的发病率较高,11月和12月之间的发病率较低。在县一级,发病率在每10万人中16.8至233.5之间。该省南部的发病率通常高于北部地区。通过时空扫描分析发现的最可能的时空群集发生在2012年5月至6月的南部地区。平均温度和降雨量与手足口病发病率呈正相关,而降雨量≥0.1mm的天数,低温,高温和日照时间呈负相关。特别地,相对湿度没有关系。总之,江苏省手足口病的流行具有明显的季节性特征。病因组成动态变化,可能是手足口病发病率随时间变化的潜在驱动力。适度温暖的环境会促进HFMD病毒的传播,而特别是寒冷和炎热的气候条件会限制HFMD病毒的传播。

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