Due to the complexity of financial markets, there exist situations where security returns and background factor returns are available mainly based on experts’ subjective beliefs, such as in the case of lack of historical data. To deal with such indeterminate quantities, uncertain variables are introduced. Based on uncertainty theory, this paper discusses the distribution function of the optimal portfolio return. Two types of new uncertain programming models, namely, the chance-mean model and the measure-mean model, are proposed to make an optimal portfolio selection decision in an uncertain environment. It is proved that there exists an equivalent relation between the chance-mean model and a deterministic linear programming model, which leads to an approach to obtain the optimal solutions of the proposed models. Finally, some numerical examples are illustrated to show the modelling ideas and the effectiveness of the models.
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