Agricultural investment, growth and poverty reduction: What will be the outcomes of the comprehensive Africa agricultural development program in Guinea-Bissau?

摘要

Promoted under the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD), the objective of the Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development Program (CAADP) is to increase the pace of agricultural growth in order to reduce poverty by half under the first goal of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015. In this paper, we assess the expected effects of the CAADP on growth and poverty in Guinea-Bissau. Simulations are performed based on a dynamic general equilibrium model. The results reveal that Guinea Bissau would not achieve the first MDG goal by 2015 even under the assumption of an implementation of CAADP. Only a sustained implementation of CAADP on a longer time framework and a deliberate policy of increased agricultural productivity would allow policy makers to set the economy on a path of growth that will allow the halving of poverty by 2020.