Modeling of Monthly Meteorological Time Series

摘要

The average monthly temperature and rainfall time series recordedbetween January, 1991 to December, 2016 in five selected African coun-tries climatic zones (Ghana, Kenya, Namibia, Egypt and Cameroon)from West Africa, East Africa, Southern Africa, Northern and the Cen-tral Africa respectively, obtained from the World Bank Group ClimateChange Knowledge Portal, were modeled and fitted. In this study, weused the Fourier function with seasonal autoregressive integrated mov-ing average, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average process,and natural cubic splines to capture the dynamics of the time series data.The Fourier function with seasonal autoregressive integrated moving av-erage; FARIMA approach produce the best fitting models for averagemonthly temperature and averagely monthly rainfall for selected studycountries in Africa.