Development of framework for assessment of impact of climate change in a command of water resource project

摘要

A framework comprising of four interdependent modules has been developed to analyse demanda??supply scenarios under future uncertainties of climate change in an irrigation command where any mismatch can affect sustainability and wellbeing of the rural population. In the absence of runoff records, the water balance module of framework computes daily runoff from catchment considering all inputs, outputs and losses from the system. The climatic parameters and rainfall were forecasted for three future projected periods using statistical downscaling for six different climate projections. The Soil andWater Analysis Tool (SWAT), a physically based spatially distributed hydrological model and SWAT-CUP, an application for calibration and uncertainty analysis of SWAT model have been used to calibrate and validate a model for the base period (BP:1981a??2015) and further applied to generate multiple future run off series to asses water availability. The module-IV was designed to compute evapotranspiration using ETo calculator (a software to compute evapotranspiration) and then irrigation demand for Tandula command in the Chhattisgarh state of India considering present overall effciency of 51% for the base (1991a??2015) and future assessment periods. The analysis of all projectedscenarios suggested an increase of annual temperature from present $26.2^{0}a??27.1^{0}$, $27.3^{0}$ and $27.8^{0}m{C}$ during near (FP-1: 2020a??2035), mid (FP-2: 2046a??2064) and far century (FP-3: 2081a??2099) periods, respectively, may demand more water which could be adversely affected by reduced rainfall. The water requirement may vary in the range of 410.4a??464 MCM and supply from 426.2 to 453.2 MCM based on future projection from GCMs.