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Exchange Rate Risk Analysis Based on Firm Data: A Global Value Chain Perspective

机译:基于公司数据的汇率风险分析:全球价值链视角

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This paper investigates whether firms’ participation in the global value chain (GVC) weakens the exchange rate risk and its mechanism. Based on Powers and Riker’s (2013) expanding exchange rate risk model, this paper matches data from China’s refined input-output table, the customs database, and the industrial enterprise database from 2002 to 2009 to measure the firms’ GVC forward linkages and backward linkages and therefore empirically tests the relationship between participation in the GVC and the exchange rate risk. The results show that participation in the GVC reduces firms’ exchange rate risk through a “comovement effect” for forward linkages and a “hedging effect” for backward linkages; differences in a firm’s position in the GVC affect the extent of reduction in the exchange rate risk. Encouraging firms to participate in the GVC and strengthening GVC relationship with high-income countries in particular play an important role in minimizing the exchange rate risk.
机译:本文调查了公司是否参与全球价值链(GVC)削弱了汇率风险及其机制。基于Powers和Riker(2013)扩大汇率风险模型,本文与2002年至2009年从中国精致的输入输出表,海关数据库和工业企业数据库的数据匹配,以衡量公司的GVC前瞻性和后向联系因此,经验测试参与GVC与汇率风险之间的关系。结果表明,GVC的参与通过“复制效应”来降低公司的汇率风险,以便向前键和“对冲效应”进行后向联系; GVC在GVC中的差异影响汇率风险的减少程度。鼓励公司参与GVC并加强与高收入国家的GVC关系,特别是在最大限度地降低汇率风险方面发挥着重要作用。

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