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Risks and opportunities for a?Swiss hydroelectricity company in a?changing climate

机译:a的风险和机遇?瑞士水电公司的一个?改变气候

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Anticipating and adapting to climate change impacts on water resources requires a?detailed understanding of future hydroclimatic changes and of stakeholders' vulnerability to these changes. However, impact studies are often conducted at a?spatial scale that is too coarse to capture the specificity of individual catchments, and, importantly, the changes they focus on are not necessarily the changes most critical to stakeholders. While recent studies have combined hydrological and electricity market modeling, they tend to aggregate all climate impacts by focusing solely on reservoir profitability. Here, we collaborated with Groupe?E, a?hydroelectricity company operating several reservoirs in the Swiss pre-Alps, and we co-produced hydroclimatic projections tailored to support the upcoming negotiations of their water concession renewal. We started by identifying the vulnerabilities of their activities to climate change; together, we then selected streamflow and electricity demand indices to characterize the associated risks and opportunities. We provided Groupe?E with figures showing the projected impacts, which were refined over several meetings. The selected indices enabled us to assess a?variety of impacts induced by changes in (i) the seasonal water volume distribution, (ii) low flows, (iii) high flows, and (iv) electricity demand. This enabled us to identify key opportunities (e.g., the future increase in reservoir inflow in winter, when electricity prices have historically been high) and risks (e.g., the expected increase in consecutive days of low flows in summer and fall which is likely to make it more difficult to meet residual flow requirements). We highlight that the hydrological opportunities and risks associated with reservoir management in a?changing climate depend on a?range of factors beyond those covered by traditional impact studies. This stakeholder-centered approach, which relies on identifying stakeholder's needs and using them to inform the production and visualization of impact projections, is transferable to other climate impact studies, in the field of water resources and beyond.
机译:预测和适应气候变化对水资源的影响需要?详细了解未来的循环变化和利益相关者对这些变化的脆弱性。然而,影响研究通常以a?空间标尺进行太粗糙,以捕捉各个流域的特异性,并且重要的是,他们专注的变化不一定对利益相关者最关键的变化。虽然最近的研究组合了水文和电力市场建模,但它们倾向于通过仅关注水库盈利能力来汇总所有气候影响。在这里,我们与Groupe?e合作,a?水电公司在瑞士阿尔卑斯山的几个水库上运营,我们共同生产的液压革新体,以支持他们的饮品更新的即将到来的谈判。我们首先识别他们对气候变化活动的脆弱性;我们一起选择Stream流程和电力需求指标,以表征相关的风险和机会。我们提供了Groupe?e与展示预计影响的数字,这些影响是在几次会议上进行的。所选指数使我们能够评估(i)季节性水量分布(ii)低流量,(iii)高流量和(iv)电力需求所产生的各种影响。这使我们能够识别关键机会(例如,冬季的水库流入的未来增加,当电力价格历史上很高)和风险(例如,夏季和秋季连续日期的预期增加,可能会产生更难以满足剩余流量要求)。我们强调了与水库管理相关的水文机会和风险?改变气候依赖于一个超出传统影响研究所涵盖的因素范围。依靠识别利益相关者的需求并使用它们来告知产生和可视化的影响和可视化的利益攸关方的方法可转移到水资源和超越水资源领域的其他气候影响研究。

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