Demand and Driver Supply Implications of Regular Public Transportation System for Policy Makers: A Case Study of Kandahar City, Afghanistan

摘要

Kandahar city of Afghanistan being one of the largest cities of the country does not have any regular system of public transportation. Unfortunately, at the moment the entire picture of the current services and future plans is unclear due to the lack of travel behavioral data including trip rate, travel time distribution, modal share and so on. More serious is that mechanism behind the behavior has not been figured out, so that no comprehensive transportation planning was established from theoretical basis. As the unprecedented study in Kandahar city, this paper attempted to carry out a travel survey with Revealed and Stated Preference (RP/SP) approach to understand travel behavior for the first time, by focusing on determinant factors of demand for regular public transportation modes and supply of drivers using discrete choice modelling approach. The results revealed that travel time and travel cost are among the most influential factors for forecasting the demand of public transport. Other socio-demographic factors such as gender, age, monthly income, and vehicle ownership are also demand determinant factors. Furthermore, consideration of women in all processes of planning and operating public transit is very essential. On the other hand, due to low income, higher working loads and some other job related factors, the drivers of paratransit system are not satisfied with their current jobs and have shown strong willingness to become bus drivers in future. Their willingness to change their jobs is effected by their personal income levels, availability of other income sources, education and some other social factors.