Probabilistic assessment of main factors determining the road traffic accident rate in regions of Russia

摘要

This paper sets forth the findings of the research on the traffic accident rate in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, based upon respective regional statistical data for the four-year period from 2015 to 2018. In order to achieve the goal of the research — to identify the main factors affecting the accident rate, — the methods of correlation and regression analysis were used. We obtained regression equations relating the main indicators of the accident rate to the most relevant factors. The quality of the regression equations is characterized by means of the coefficients of correlation between actual and estimated values of the number of RTAs (road traffic accidents), the number of RTA fatalities and injuries. We assessed the role of each factor under consideration by means of confidence estimates and confidence probabilities, and determined factors that have both a positive and a negative influence on the accident rate.