Using Scenario-Based Elicitation in Analysis of Uncertainty in a Transport Infrastructure Project

摘要

This research devised and demonstrated a method to identify the uncertainties evident in transport infrastructure planning, focussing on the early decision making stages of the project lifecycle. The core of the method used a “Cross Impact” model, anchored in complexity theory to analyse expert opinions on the future for the project. Stakeholder interviews, based around an ideal scenario, were undertaken to elicit opinions about the proposed development, focusing on the decision making steps and environment en-route to the outcome. The interviews were then coded using qualitative data analysis techniques and the emerging variables analysed using the cross impact model. The findings from this case study were that executive leadership and collaboration between Local Authorities were the most influential determinants for progress, and that the prime causes of uncertainty were the extant economic and planning policies. Since the completion of this study, structural transport governance developments have occurred in the UK that have endorsed these findings. This paper focusses on coding of the stakeholder interviews and rationalising the variables which were either present in the scenario or introduced by the stakeholders.