A nonlinear heuristic model for estimation of Covid-19 impact to world population

摘要

In the current model of first approximation, we suggest a nonlinearheuristic approach by appropriate mathematical modelling, with the main aim –estimate the part of humankind which will survive definitely (in optimistic scenario).As a historical example, let us recall the fate of Inca civilization as pessimistic scenario.It seems to be natural, by the existing traditions in theoretical biology, to use theory ofrecurrent sets (chains of recurrent sets) for describing how population evolves overtime. Such an approach actually determines a non-linear dependence of self-similarrate of evolution process (or dynamics of infected population) in regard to the properresidual capacity of non-infected part of all the humankind to overcome the pandemicof K-virus (Covid-19). The last is assumed to be associated with “potential of theniche for absorbing the infection”, defining a catastrophic acceleration (or optimisticdeceleration) for the dynamics of the infected part of population.