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Quantifying changes of wind speed distributions in the historical record of Atlantic tropical cyclones

机译:大西洋热带气旋历史记录中风速分布的量化变化

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Here we re-examine the official Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (hurricane) database HURDAT (1851–2008) and quantify differences between wind speed distributions in the early historical (1851–1943) record and more recent observations. Analyses were performed at three different geographical levels: for all six-hourly track segments of all Atlantic basin events, all segments of all events that crossed the US mainland, and US landfalling segments alone. At all three geographical levels of study, distributions of windspeeds over the last two, four and six decades display negligible dispersion or systematic change over time. On the other hand and relative to wind speed frequencies for subsequent years, the 1851–1943 record has a marked and statistically significant over-representation of wind speeds largely corresponding to Saffir-Simpson Categories 1 and 2 and under-representation of Categories 4 and 5 events; importantly, no single Category 5 event is recorded prior to 1924. The stability of the distribution of windspeeds at landfall over the last six decades, the dataset in which we can have most confidence, suggests that the differences in the earlier record are most likely explained by well-known measurement and observational deficiencies. Moreover by disaggregating the Power Dissipation Index (PDI), we demonstrate that the upward trend in Atlantic basin PDI since 1970s does not imply stronger and longer duration Category 5 windspeeds despite a warming climate. These results have implications for hurricane catastrophe loss modeling for the insurance industry and long-term trend analyses of the historical wind speed record, especially those related to the attribution of the role of Global Climate Change.
机译:在这里,我们重新审视了官方大西洋盆地热带气旋(飓风)数据库Hurdat(1851-2008)并量化了早期风速分布的差异(1851-1943)记录和更新的观察。分析在三个不同的地理级别进行:对于所有大西洋盆地事件的所有六小时赛道,所有越过美国大陆的所有活动的部分以及单独的美国大陆群体。在所有三个地理学水平的研究中,过去两年的风速分布,四到六十年的展示会随着时间的推移而显示可忽略不计或系统的变化。另一方面,对于随后几年的风速频率,1851-1943记录的风速有一个标记和统计学上的超大表示,风速很大程度上对应于SAFFIR-SIMPSON类别1和2,以及类别4和5的代表性事件;重要的是,在1924年之前没有记录单一类别5事件。在过去六十年中,登陆的风速分布的稳定性,我们可以最有信心的数据集表明,早期记录的差异很可能是最可能解释的通过众所周知的测量和观察缺陷。此外,尽管气候变暖,但我们证明了自20世纪70年代以来,大西洋盆地PDI的上升趋势并不意味着更强,更长的持续时间5次风速。这些结果对保险业的飓风灾难性损失建模有影响,以及历史风速记录的长期趋势分析,特别是与全球气候变化作用有关的人。

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