ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES OF THE HOTAN OASIS USING SWAT MODEL, NORTHWEST CHINA

摘要

Assessing the water resources of Oasis areas was very important for the ecological environment protection and sustainable development in arid area, especially under the threaten of global climate change. This study predicted the runoff of Hotan Oasis over the period of 2020-2050, using the SWAT model driven by China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets (CMADS) on the possible Scenarios, based on the analysis of the trends of temperature, precipitation, and runoff over the period of 1980-2015. The results indicated that the trend of temperature, precipitation, and runoff were increased especially from the 21 Century. Both the significant increasing of annual mean temperature from 2002 and slightly increasing of annual mean precipitation from 2004 due to the increasing tendency of runoff of Hotan river. SWAT model demonstrated well satisfactory performance for the upstream Hotan river basin when driven by CMADS. The runoff into Hotan Oasis is generally predicted to increase of 10.34%, 22.45%, 34.61% and 47.46% in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 by assuming climate scenarios analysis using the SWAT model, which provides useful information for water allocation and management of Hotan Oasis to meet the country's future needs.