System Dynamics Approaches in Managing Real Estate Development Crises: Conceptual versus Scenario-Based

摘要

Real Estate development organizations are vulnerable to crises' events due to the complexity of the external environment, internal structure, and operation systems . This paper aims to present, analyze, and compare between two proposed approaches for managing development crises based on system dynamics methodology. Twenty crises' scenarios are identified in order to be utilized in the analysis process of two approaches. These approaches are the conceptual approach and the scenario-based approach. The conceptual approach provides a framework to manage crises in a broad manner using Mitroff's model. The scenario-based approach uses crisis event characteristics to specify its containment policy. The crises' characteristics are identified by analyzing courses with time, classifying attributes, and specifying archetypes . The outcome of the analysis process for both approaches should guide developer s and upgrade the quality of their decision in selecting adequate containment policies .?? ?