The spatial-temporal patterns of heatwave hazard impacts on wheat in northern China under extreme climate scenarios

摘要

Revealing the future spatial-temporal patterns of heatwave impacts on crops due to global climate change is of great scientific significance for climate change-related agricultural hazards prevention. However, the prediction of future wheat heatwave considering the planting distribution, growth period of wheat, as well as heatwave frequencies, days, and intensities remain poorly understood. In this paper, using predicted meteorological data of the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario from 2011 to 2099 as well as a set of indicators that include heatwave days, frequencies and effective accumulative high temperatures, a comprehensive evaluation was performed to characterize the spatial-temporal variability of the heatwave hazard impacts on wheat in northern China under extreme climate scenarios. The results indicate that heatwaves across the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Xinjiang, western Gansu and the agro-pastoral ecotone are most frequent in the long-term. Heatwaves show significant increasing trends with regard to future occurrence frequency, days and intensities. The heatwave hazard on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Northeast China, and the agro-pastoral ecotone shows a rapid growth trend, and there is a clear transition from relatively low heatwave hazard to a higher hazard. We argue that the continuous increase in heatwaves may pose a great threat to wheat production in northern China.