Analysis of Mine Water Disaster Based on Fractal Theory

摘要

Mine water disaster has characteristics of contingency and randomness which increase the difficulty of predictive models. In the recent ten years, Chinese statistical data of mine water disaster show that the frequency conforms to exponential regression analysis and the time series of death toll accord with fractal time series. Firstly, R/S and Hurst index are used to prove the death toll of mine water disaster to accord with fractal time series. Then, the fractal interpolation theory is used to predict the occurrence rules of mine water disaster. Finally, the fitting curve of fractal interpolation is drawn by use of MATLAB method and compared with the actual curve of statistical data. The results show that fractal theory to predict rule of mine water disaster is feasible. So, this prediction technique can prevent the failure and concealment from reporting mine water disaster.