An Advanced Data-Driven Hybrid Model of SARIMA-NNNAR for Tuberculosis Incidence Time Series Forecasting in Qinghai Province, China

摘要

Purpose: Qinghai province has invariably been under an ongoing threat of tuberculosis (TB), which has not only been an obstacle to local development but also hampers the prevention and control process for ending the TB epidemic. Forecasting for future epidemics will serve as the base for early detection and planning resource requirements. Here, we aim to develop an advanced detection technique driven by the recent TB incidence series, by fusing a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) with a neural network nonlinear autoregression (NNNAR). Methods: We collected the TB incidence data between January 2004 and December 2016. Subsequently, the subsamples from January 2004 to December 2015 were employed to measure the efficiency of the single SARIMA, NNNAR, and hybrid SARIMA-NNNAR approaches, whereas the hold-out subsamples were used to test their predictive performances. We finally selected the best-performing technique by considering minimum metrics including the mean absolute error, root-mean-squared error, mean absolute percentage error and mean error rate . Results: During 2004– 2016, the reported TB cases totaled 71,080 resulting in the morbidity of 97.624 per 100,000 persons annually in Qinghai province and showed notable peak activities in late winter and early spring. Moreover, the TB incidence rate was surging by 5% per year. According to the above-mentioned criteria, the best-fitting basic and hybrid techniques consisted of SARIMA(2,0,2)(1,1,0)sub12/sub, NNNAR(7,1,4)sub12/sub and SARIMA(2,0,2)(1,1,0)sub12/sub-NNNAR(3,1,7)sub12/sub, respectively. Amongst them, the hybrid technique showed superiority in both mimic and predictive parts, with the lowest values of the measured metrics in both the parts. The sensitivity analysis indicated the same results. Conclusion: The best-mimicking SARIMA-NNNAR hybrid model outperforms the best-simulating basic SARIMA and NNNAR models, and has a potential application in forecasting and assessing the TB epidemic trends in Qinghai. Furthermore, faced with the major challenge of the ongoing upsurge in TB incidence in Qinghai, there is an urgent need for formulating specific preventive and control measures.