Analysis and evaluation of the risks of bird strikes in the international Guarulhos airport surroundings

摘要

The first catastrophic avian impact victim killed Cal Rogers in 1912 in the United States. The most recent and catastrophic accident by bird striking occurred on August 11, 2016 with Airbus A320 aircraft apparently after striking at least one bird upon takeoff from New York's LaGuardia Airport. The aircraft landed safely on Hudson River. Fortunately everybody still alive, even though the loss of aircraft hull. The purpose of this study is to present the panorama of the bird strikes, to identify, evaluate the propensities and to present the propositions to mitigating the bird strike risks in the surroundings of the Guarulhos International Airport (SBGR). This study is based on probabilistic and heuristic methods to infer about the risk propensities of avian strikes. The study of bird strikes and risk management are essential to anticipate and minimize the severity and reduction of frequency of occurrences. The results of the statistical analyze point to the flight densities and the frequency of events due to the migratory periods of the neotropic and endemic birds. Native populations of birds travel between the Serra do Mar, the Mata Atlantica and forests around the airport to the Serra da Cantareira forest. Impact events are strongly correlated with the density of aircraft movements in the SBGR.