Ten-day rainfall amounts at Campinas, State of S?o Paulo, Brazil: temporal persistence, periodicities, and climate trends

摘要

> face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">The aim of the study was to evaluate the presence of temporal persistence, periodicals components, and trends within the ten-day rainfall series (PRE), observed during 1890-2009 at the weather station of Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil. Based on the autocorrelation function and on the Run test it was observed no significant temporal persistence within the data sample. The spectral analysis carried on the time-frequency domain has shown no remarkable periodicity associated with the variance peaks in the temporal signal under evaluation. Based on non parametric methods and considering the significance levels commonly adopted in the scientific literature (10 and 5%) it was detected no important climate trend within the PRE series. However, during the end of the dry season and the beginning of the rainy season it was observed an unexpected high number of decreasing (negative) trends cases that may be an indication of changes in the climatic conditions observed during 1890-2009. This last feature may reveal a delay in the resumption of the rainy season.