Changes in Economic Sentiment Indicators before and after Economic Crisis (Position of Visegrad Group and Germany in EU)

摘要

Confidence factors play an important role not only in the assessment of business cycles but also in the evaluation of national competitiveness (e.g. the Global Competitiveness report published by the World Economic Forum) due to both using soft data obtained from opinion surveys. The subjective nature of confidence leads to questions about the soundness of such findings. Since the answers from opinion surveys are subjective, the empirical relationship between sentiment indicators and economic variables is not unambiguously established. In these conditions, the results of business surveys and the findings published by competitiveness rankings should not be accepted unconditionally. This paper starts with the comparison of soft data (respondents' sentiment) assessing the quality of institutions among world regions in the Global Competitiveness Report 2017-18. The aim of this paper is to offer a more precise view of the development of economic sentiment in the EU countries, especially in Germany and the Visegrad group countries (the V4). As tools for this description, a business sentiment indicator (ESI) and confidence indicators were applied. For analysis of changes in business sentiment and respondents' confidence, a graphical examination of variables, correlation analysis, changes in standard deviation, changes in countries' ranking, and the comparison of average sentiment (confidence) in the pre-crisis and the post-crisis period were used. Our analysis indicates the equivalent of the so-called halo effect in the pre-crisis period for the V4 (the positive expectation connected with the EU accession) and the deterioration in sentiment and confidence indicators in the post-crisis period.