Temporal and spatial variation of extreme temperatures in an agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China from 1960 to 2016

摘要

The agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China is one of the areas most sensitive to global temperature change. To analyze the temporal and spatial trends of extreme temperature events in this area, we calculated the values of 16 extreme-temperature indices from 1960 to 2016 based on data from 45 national meteorological stations. We found that the coldest-temperature indices decreased significantly and the warmest-temperature indices increased significantly. The warming of night temperatures contributed more than warming of day temperatures to the overall warming trend. In addition, the warm-temperature indices appeared to be increasing since the late 1980s and early 1990s. Overall, though the four extremal indices showed an increasing trend, the rate of change in the minimum temperature was greater than that of the maximum temperature; thus, the minimum temperature contributed most strongly to the overall temperature increases. The growing season is being prolonged in higher-elevation areas, but vegetation maturation in lower-elevation areas has been accelerated by the high temperatures, potentially leading to a shorter growing season at low altitudes. However, the impacts of land-use changes caused by human activities on the temperature increases will require additional study.