Age–Period–Cohort Analysis of Trends in Mortality from Drowning in China: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

摘要

The studies on drowning mortality are very scarce in China, and the aim of this study is to identify the long-term patterns of drowning mortality in China between 1990 and 2015 to provide evidence for further prevention and control on drowning. The mortality data were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 and were analyzed with the age–period–cohort framework. This study demonstrated that the age-standardized mortality rates for drowning in both sexes displayed general declining trends with a decrease in the drowning mortality rate for every age group. In the same birth cohort, both sexes witnessed a substantial decline followed by a slight increase in the risk of death from drowning with age after controlling for period deviations. The estimated period and cohort relative risks were found in similar monotonic downward patterns for both sexes, with more reduction for females than for males during the whole study period.